A new study from the Joint Research Centre has concluded that climate change will affect sun-seeking tourists’ demand for some holiday destinations.
The report, entitled ‘Time is of the essence: adaptation of tourism demand to climate change in Europe’ and compiled by the European Commission’s in-house research body, found that if climate predictions for the year 2100 are realised, revenues from tourism in the Mediterranean could fall by 0.45% of GDP. However, tourist revenues in some areas of northern Europe could rise by 0.32% of GDP.
The JRC document provides long term predictions that take into account climate adaptation in regards to holiday duration and frequency, as well as cost estimates in accommodation and travel. It is anticipated that tourists will alter the timing and length of their holidays, particularly if traditional tourist destinations remain attractive outside the traditional summer season.
According to the experts, changes in demand as regards timing of holidays, would be more costly for southern European regions, whilst being more beneficial to northern and central European countries as well as the British Isles.
The adaptation in the duration of holidays appears to limit both the losses of southern European regions and the gains of northern regions. Furthermore, when considering the variables of duration and timing of adaption together, the JRC says the projected falls and gains in tourism demand appear to be much more contained.