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General Election – Analysis

30 July 2013

Now that the votes have been counted and MP’s determined, LGC News takes a more in depth look at the voting results…

Voter Turnout: The overall voting percentage for this election was 69.61%. While this level would be regarded with envy by any European country it was one of the lowest turnouts in the history of the TRNC. However, there are a number of factors behind this number.

The primary factor is the antiquated census and recording systems within the TRNC. The voting lists are known to include dead voters as well as students studying abroad. If these were adjusted for, then the turnout would be around 75%. In addition, the election was held in the summer heat and Ramadan period, both inhibiting factors.

Voter Intentions: A significant factor is the rise in mixed voting. In the TRNC, voters are allowed to vote for a number of candidates across party lines. In the last election (2009) this mixed voting was around 9%, in these elections it rose to 30%, an indication that voters have switched to voting for candidates rather than for parties.

UBP Crash: The last government was led by the UBP party. However, voters deserted in droves and UBP’s share of the vote in this general election, at 27.33%, was the lowest since 1976. The leader of the party, Irsen Kucuk, lost his parliamentary seat and may well lose control of the party.

Coalition: No single party won enough seats in this election to rule on its own. Therefore there will have to be a coalition government and the most likely coalition is between the leading CTP party and the DP party.

There are likely to be tensions within the coalition and even within the CTP. All the major parties have agreed that the Economic Protocol 2013-2015 must be upheld and cannot be altered. Turkey is insistent on this. In fact it withheld the monthly funds transfer to the TRNC last month until the interim government, led by PM Sibel Siber, confirmed that it was bound by the protocol. However the CTP is a socialist party and the measures for privatisation in the Protocol will cause it problems.

Technocrats: The interim government of technocrats, spearheaded by PM Sibel Siber, proved hugely popular and will influence appointments in the new government. In fact Ms Siber received the largest number of votes of any MP.

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